Rested or Rusted?

I’m having some second thoughts about my prediction that the Red Sox will lose today.  I have to make it more "conditional".  I still think it’s more likely that they’ll lose than that they’ll win, because the Angels should perform better at home, but there are some big variables which make it difficult to predict today’s game:

How will Schilling respond to having an extra week of rest between starts?

Will he feel to strong and overthrow?  Will he lose control?  Will he remember playoff "mode" and snap back into the winning big-game pitcher of the past? 

Also, Weaver is a good pitcher, but lately the Red Sox have hit him well.  Will we see him get hit hard, or will being in Anaheim be enough for him to forget the past and pitch very well?

Adjusted Forecast:

I think we might see Jacoby Ellsbury play a few innings today.  Just a hunch.

I think Schilling will be rusty.  If he doesn’t walk anyone and keeps the Angels to 2 runs or less after 3 innings, the Red Sox will probably win.  A lot depends on those first 2 or 3 innings.  He’s likely to shake off the rust after that, and if he gains confidence from those first 3 innings, he’ll probably go for 7 good innings.

If he gives up 3 or more in the first 3, the Red Sox lose.


One comment


    Colorado is the CLEARLY best team in this year’s play offs. MLB should take note about Boston’s sign stealing. The LONG rest may also hurt Colorado.

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